Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbf0…fe5b world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 20% −$2
politics 7% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +8.7% -1.7% 42% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 12 +8.7% -1.7% 42% 8% -8.8%
all 28 +1.9% -7.8% 32% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 4% -9.2%
10% -16.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage387d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $70 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $2 +$2 +100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $21 $0 +2%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 29 $2 −$1 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $10 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $0 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records