Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbec…5340 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$65
sports 26% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -12.1%
≤30d 15 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -12.1%
≤90d 15 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -12.1%
all 15 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 27% -12.1%
10% -50.8% 27% -20.5%
15% -55.5% 20% -28.2%
20% -59.9% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)15 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 96¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+335%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $252 +$81 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $107 −$49 -46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao $0 6h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $10 19h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $10 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 19h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $52 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $10 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $56 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.57 · official $35.57 (match) · 47 history records