Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BB 0xbbe9…d22e other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$327 (+10%) realized +$330 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +178% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +142% what you keep after slip

Net edge+142%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate68%15W / 7L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$839

7 days+$1,468

14 days+$1,997

30 days+$1,987

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+152.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+313.1%	+273.8%	82%	82%	+102.0%
≤30d	22	+178.5%	+152.0%	68%	64%	+90.0%
≤90d	22	+178.5%	+152.0%	68%	64%	+90.0%
all	22	+178.5%	+152.0%	68%	64%	+90.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+152.0%	64%	+90.0%
10%	+127.9%	64%	+71.8%
15%	+105.9%	64%	+55.2%
20%	+85.7%	59%	+40.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +107% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +179% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late +313% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$162 vs −$63 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized+$330

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses15 / 7

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 45

History coverage21d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	59¢	57¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dr	Jun 28	$20	+$137	+686%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	Jun 27	$40	+$642	+1606%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	Jun 26	$61	+$60	+98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in	Jun 26	$50	+$331	+662%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$61	+$50	+82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25	Jun 25	$81	+$66	+81%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$280	−$280	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$42	+42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$202	−$24	-12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 24	$102	+$150	+147%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$193	+$294	+152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$102	+$208	+204%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$197	+$215	+109%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$97	−$50	-52%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$47	−$2	-4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$51	−$13	-25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$75	+$41	+54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$31	+$2	+7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$47	+$129	+272%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$42	−$41	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$38	+$62	+165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$32	−$31	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	BUY	2¢	$50	24h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end	BUY	2¢	$50	24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	6¢	$40	41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-	BUY	2¢	$20	41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	2¢	$44	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	5¢	$50	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in	BUY	13¢	$50	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dr	BUY	12¢	$20	2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	29¢	$143	3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$280	3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Son Heungmi	BUY	34¢	$204	4d
Son Heungmin: 2+ goals AND Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Repub	BUY	2¢	$51	4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND	BUY	6¢	$51	4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Son Heungmin: 2+ goals AND South Afr	BUY	4¢	$21	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	57¢	$0	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	57¢	$178	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	69¢	$111	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$193	5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND	BUY	6¢	$12	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY	54¢	$61	8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	50¢	$61	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25	BUY	55¢	$81	8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	40¢	$102	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	70¢	$101	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND	BUY	62¢	$101	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	32¢	$102	9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN	BUY	21¢	$102	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$4	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.46 · official $97.46 (match) · 88 history records