Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BB 0xbbe7…33d8 crypto 1124 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,496 (+4%) realized +$1,494 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate84%948W / 175L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$131
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$205
weather 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -8.3% -17.0% 81% 38% -12.5%
≤30d 143 -7.8% -16.6% 81% 38% -11.7%
≤90d 190 -4.2% -13.3% 72% 38% -11.2%
all 1123 -0.0% -9.5% 84% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 17% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 6% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1,494
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses948 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1123 / 1124
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.45 · official $32.45 (match) · 3500 history records