Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe4…2a32 weather 84 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized +$61 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%42W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$76
sports 32% +$34
other 19% −$52
tech 4% +$30
finance 1% +$4
world 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -5.9% -14.8% 66% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 64 -5.9% -14.8% 66% 50% -8.5%
≤90d 64 -5.9% -14.8% 66% 50% -8.5%
all 64 -5.9% -14.8% 66% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 50% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 33% -17.3%
15% -30.4% 20% -25.3%
20% -37.3% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses42 / 22
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions20
Markets (closed)64 / 84
History coverage7d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 88¢ 92¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 85¢ 96¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 42¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30? No 90¢ 89¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 71¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 70¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 64¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 46¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 60¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 16¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $151 +$20 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $45 +$25 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$21 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$16 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 +$66 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $20 +$12 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 +$10 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 −$15 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$13 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$15 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 +$36 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $111 +$14 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $84 +$21 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 88¢ $50 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 24¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 22h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 52¢ $31 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $101 23h
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $20 23h
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $20 23h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $20 23h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $20 23h
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $20 23h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $20 23h
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $20 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 23h
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 30h
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $20 33h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 33h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 35h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $31 35h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $30 35h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.69 · official $430.65 (match) · 238 history records