Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe3…15e0 other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 24% −$19
culture 7% −$7
politics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$2
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage129d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $557 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $374 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $380 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $408 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $590 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $395 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $562 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $126 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 29m
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 6h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 8h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 20h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 25h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 32h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 37h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 41h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 43h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1345 history records