Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbbe2…d57c politics 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$2
sports 5% $0
other 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 11 -10.4% -19.0% 27% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -10.9%
10% -26.7% 0% -19.4%
15% -33.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -40.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage250d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 +0%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 13 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 4m
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 7h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 12h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 13h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 18h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 131d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 95¢ $15 131d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 95¢ $15 175d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $20 206d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 208d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $20 216d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $14 220d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $13 235d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $49 250d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $49 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.35 · official $537.35 (match) · 27 history records