Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbbe2…43b2 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$398 (+52%) realized +$472 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$205
14 days+$442
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$23
sports 30% +$93
politics 14% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +55.7% +40.8% 31% 31% +40.3%
≤30d 24 +34.5% +21.7% 29% 29% +54.2%
≤90d 24 +34.5% +21.7% 29% 29% +54.2%
all 24 +34.5% +21.7% 29% 29% +54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 29% +54.2%
10% +10.0% 29% +39.5%
15% -0.6% 29% +26.0%
20% -10.4% 29% +13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$23 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$472
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage17d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 29¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 17¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$93 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$252 +980%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 +$64 +249%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 03 $104 +$298 +287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 43m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes $26 5d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 5d
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 5d
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 7d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 7d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 8d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.38 · official $51.38 (match) · 37 history records