Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe1…a26b crypto 39 markets active 2d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-22%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$188
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$131
sports 26% +$14
crypto 17% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -41.2%
≤30d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -41.2%
≤90d 39 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 38% -30.6%
all 39 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 38% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -30.6%
10% -33.0% 36% -37.3%
15% -39.5% 31% -43.3%
20% -45.4% 23% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage77d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qual Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$26 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $67 +$73 +110%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$19 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Imperial Academy (BO3) - European Pro Leag Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs ACROBATS (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Q Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof Apr 02 $53 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs KukuysV3 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qua Apr 02 $10 +$15 +150%
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $20 +$24 +119%
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Apr 01 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Mar 30 $34 +$38 +112%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Mar 30 $5 +$6 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $72 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $46 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 5d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $23 71d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qual BUY Virtus.pro 19¢ $47 75d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof SELL MOUZ 73¢ $22 75d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs KukuysV3 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qua SELL KukuysV3 88¢ $25 75d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof BUY MOUZ 76¢ $23 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 75d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof SELL MOUZ 79¢ $29 75d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof BUY MOUZ 80¢ $30 75d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs KukuysV3 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qua BUY KukuysV3 34¢ $10 75d
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $20 76d
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A SELL Yellow Submarine 61¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $37 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records