Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbbdd…cd9d sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,081 (+2%) realized +$750 · open +$331
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%197W / 99L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$454est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$697
14 days+$78
30 days+$2,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,145
other 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.5% +26.2% 100% 100% +29.6%
≤30d 141 +9.8% -0.7% 73% 70% -2.0%
≤90d 296 +3.5% -6.3% 67% 63% -7.6%
all 296 +3.5% -6.3% 67% 63% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 63% -7.6%
10% -15.3% 59% -16.5%
15% -23.5% 47% -24.6%
20% -31.0% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$145 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$750
Unrealized+$331
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses197 / 99
Est. fees paid−$454
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 298
History coverage63d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 41¢ 100¢ $250 $608 +$358 (+143%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 8¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $405 +$241 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,009 +$422 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $201 +$34 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $302 +$88 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $302 +$103 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$160 +105%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $301 +$29 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $228 +$221 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$253 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $140 +$17 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$126 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $118 +$51 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $151 +$69 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $254 −$250 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $501 +$20 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $201 +$37 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $353 +$164 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $202 +$110 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$41 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $302 +$91 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $302 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $304 +$232 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $354 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$34 +23%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $151 +$48 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 8¢ $28 51m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $101 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $405 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $201 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $1,009 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $202 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $204 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $303 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $302 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $302 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $152 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $152 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $101 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $202 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 96¢ $501 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 96¢ $501 12d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $202 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 17¢ $31 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 48¢ $152 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 91¢ $301 13d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $200 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $228 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $153 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $503 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $203 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $140 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 72¢ $101 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 58¢ $17 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $202 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.29 · official $608.29 (match) · 544 history records