Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd9…de31 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,878 (-38%) realized −$15,736 · open −$142
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,558per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$991
7 days−$9,684
14 days−$19,094
30 days−$16,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$8,535
crypto 15% −$6,360
other 8% −$1,456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 37% -50.8%
≤30d 26 -23.9% -31.1% 46% 42% -45.4%
≤90d 26 -23.9% -31.1% 46% 42% -45.4%
all 26 -23.9% -31.1% 46% 42% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 42% -45.4%
10% -37.7% 31% -50.6%
15% -43.7% 27% -55.4%
20% -49.2% 12% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,366) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$584 vs −$1,659 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized−$15,736
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,558
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 67¢ 57¢ $1,011 $869 −$142 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $501 +$20 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,610 −$1,103 -42%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,010 +$481 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,182 +$441 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,071 −$830 -78%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $756 −$743 -98%
Will William Pacho score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $405 −$33 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $809 −$790 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,169 −$358 -31%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $141 +$75 +53%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $707 +$323 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $974 +$443 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,423 −$2,377 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,428 −$2,406 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $814 +$1,138 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,156 −$2,129 -99%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $302 +$64 +21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,787 +$309 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,457 +$330 +23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,414 −$1,400 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,366 +$504 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $6,360 −$6,360 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $2,819 −$2,793 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,489 +$2,884 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $753 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 66¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $180 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $520 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $501 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $8 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $505 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1,499 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2,105 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,491 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,010 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,182 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $241 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,071 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $381 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $375 2d
Will William Pacho score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $372 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $809 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $811 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,169 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 65¢ $141 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $97 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $13 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $199 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.30 · official $869.30 (match) · 67 history records