Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd3…8916 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% $0
other 21% +$3
finance 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 31% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 31% 6% -9.7%
all 34 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 6% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage456d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $6 $0 -7%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $18 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $32 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $31 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $20 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $20 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $34 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $34 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records