Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd3…3f29 politics 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%8W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$6
other 30% −$3
sports 23% −$4
culture 6% −$1
economics 4% +$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -20.1% -27.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 76 -5.1% -14.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses8 / 68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage382d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $101 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 08 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $102 $0 -0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $98 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $299 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $181 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $1 $0 -20%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $108 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $101 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 16 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 36d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 53d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 112d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 118d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 118d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $97 118d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $97 120d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 120d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 121d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 121d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 130d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 135d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY No 100¢ $99 138d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 141d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $98 141d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $98 142d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 144d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 148d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.74 · official $99.74 (match) · 428 history records