Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BB 0xbbcf…20ae crypto 876 markets active 11h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$340 (-1%) realized −$95 · open −$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%448W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day130.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$576
7 days+$917
14 days+$2
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,009
sports 6% +$213
world 5% +$207
other 2% −$3
finance 1% −$147
tech 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 +8.6% -1.8% 59% 55% +0.2%
≤30d 873 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 873 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 48% -10.9%
all 873 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 48% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 48% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 37% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses448 / 425
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)873 / 876
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day130.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 50¢ 16¢ $312 $104 −$208 (-67%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $66 $44 −$22 (-33%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? No 25¢ 18¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $24 +$26 +105%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $37 +$83 +228%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $35 +$65 +188%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,344 +$342 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$11 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$23 +342%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$46 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$24 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$28 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$45 +257%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$17 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$65 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$13 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$24 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$21 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$29 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$17 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$19 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 36¢ $11 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $45 11h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $35 15h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $6 15h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $24 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $168 15h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $7 16h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $0 16h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $13 17h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 17h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 26¢ $4 17h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 25¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $30 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $29 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.73 · official $182.74 (match) · 3500 history records