Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbcc…382a world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
politics 26% $0
other 10% −$1
sports 8% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage280d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $83 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $17 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $20 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records