Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbbc9…79cf crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$686per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$10
culture 27% −$5
crypto 20% +$1
other 9% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,890) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage198d
Avg bet$686
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on April 15? May 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 29-January 4? Feb 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 11 $28 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 15 $3,174 −$3 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 15 $908 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $1,888 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 12 $2,192 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 12 $2,192 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 11 $2,194 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $101 45d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 45d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 99¢ $19 72d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 72d
Will Solana dip to $65 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $62 72d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 114d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $38 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 135d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 135d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $6 135d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $16 135d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 135d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 135d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 175d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $3 175d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $79 175d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $43 193d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $197 193d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $977 193d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $908 193d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $908 194d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $978 194d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,886 194d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,888 194d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,888 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.96 · official $140.89 (match) · 70 history records