Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbc8…4f5b sports 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-11%) realized −$215 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%83W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$169
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$122
crypto 22% −$77
other 13% −$30
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 185 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 39% -20.5%
≤90d 185 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 39% -20.5%
all 185 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 39% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 39% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 29% -28.1%
15% -37.0% 22% -35.1%
20% -43.2% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses83 / 102
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)185 / 188
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Maryland Whipsnakes vs. New York Atlas New York Atlas 72¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 24¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SuperBad $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$8 +19%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $33 +$20 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$8 -96%
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders Jun 21 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +40%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$3 -69%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $3 +$1 +32%
Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Elks Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $7 +$7 +96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $26 +$13 +47%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Kenta Miyoshi Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $9 +$3 +34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -62%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 20 $3 +$1 +43%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$5 -31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$6 -66%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $11 −$10 -90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $18 −$1 -4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -73%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 20 $4 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +124%
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Andrew Fenty Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $16 −$2 -15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $15 +$5 +34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 69¢ $35 14m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $36 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $27 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 89¢ $29 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $9 2h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $2 2h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $1 2h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $1 2h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad $1 2h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $4 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $4 2h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $3 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Maryland Whipsnakes vs. New York Atlas BUY New York Atlas 72¢ $4 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 4h
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 45¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 31¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 509 history records