Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BB 0xbbc2…39aa crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$30 (+12%) realized +$30 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate71%15W / 6L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day44.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-11.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-2.6%	-11.9%	71%	33%	+0.4%
≤30d	21	-2.6%	-11.9%	71%	33%	+0.4%
≤90d	21	-2.6%	-11.9%	71%	33%	+0.4%
all	21	-2.6%	-11.9%	71%	33%	+0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-11.9%	33%	+0.4%
10% ← realistic here	-20.3%	29%	-9.2%
15%	-28.0%	24%	-18.0%
20%	-35.1%	14%	-26.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

47% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$30

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses15 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day44.6

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$5	$0	+7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	+$3	+9%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$52	+$22	+42%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$5	$0	+6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	+$3	+10%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$5	$0	+2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	$0	+2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$6	−$6	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$36	+$7	+20%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	$0	+1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	Jun 16	$26	+$10	+39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 16	$9	−$5	-50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$1	-21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$5	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	100¢	$33	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	90¢	$15	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$5	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$5	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	93¢	$5	2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$6	3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	69¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	69¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	68¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	68¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	69¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	71¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	71¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	72¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	71¢	$5	9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	68¢	$5	9h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	94¢	$5	12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY No	98¢	$5	14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team Refuser	79¢	$5	15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY No	98¢	$5	17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	90¢	$31	18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	71¢	$6	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	83¢	$5	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	85¢	$5	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$19	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$12	22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY No	99¢	$5	23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	BUY Leviatán Esports	71¢	$5	30h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	BUY Leviatán Esports	71¢	$5	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records