Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbbd…db8e world 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
sports 30% −$1
economics 7% −$1
politics 4% +$14
other 4% −$7
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.0% -13.1% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 26% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 54 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 2% -9.3%
all 67 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -22.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -30.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -37.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage533d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $85 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $11 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -29%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $107 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $38 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $7 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $11 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $38 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $32 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 0m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 0m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 0m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $39 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $39 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $41 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $44 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $45 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $45 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.90 · official $6.90 (match) · 255 history records