Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbbbc…9e0e politics 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 39% −$14
sports 7% +$29
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -4.6% -13.7% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 106 -3.2% -12.4% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage113d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $442 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $455 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $253 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $253 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $671 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $205 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $430 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 19d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $201 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $189 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $189 22d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $194 22d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $194 23d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $220 23d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $220 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $215 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $215 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $244 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $244 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 329 history records