Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbbc…529c other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$13
sports 4% +$2
world 4% −$2
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 44% -16.8%
≤30d 25 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 44% -16.8%
≤90d 25 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 44% -16.8%
all 25 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 44% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 44% -16.8%
10% -33.0% 28% -24.7%
15% -39.4% 24% -32.0%
20% -45.4% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$5 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$6 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +15%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 35h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 46h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3 2d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $1 2d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.50 · official $27.50 (match) · 61 history records