Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb6…797b crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$429 (+12%) realized +$224 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day72.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$224
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$211
other 1% −$53
sports 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 48% -3.5%
≤30d 31 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 48% -3.5%
≤90d 31 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 48% -3.5%
all 31 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 48% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 48% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 35% -12.7%
15% -28.9% 29% -21.1%
20% -35.9% 23% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$40 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$34 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $156 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$84 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $153 −$21 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $154 +$30 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$163 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $257 −$18 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$79 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $131 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $335 +$68 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $115 +$32 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$28 +108%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $35 28m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 29m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 19¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $73 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $48 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $82 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $48 54m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 35¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $57 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $1.40 · 104 history records