Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb3…9ec7 politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
politics 32% −$1
other 17% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.0%
all 41 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage332d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $62 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $49 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $49 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 31? Jul 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $3 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $15 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $19 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $35 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $34 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records