Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb2…4f69 crypto 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%177W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$20
sports 13% +$4
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 10 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 135 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 44% -16.5%
all 287 -6.7% -15.6% 62% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -14.4%
10% -23.6% 28% -22.6%
15% -31.0% 14% -30.0%
20% -37.8% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses177 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET Mar 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +7%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 27 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3PM ET Mar 25 $4 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 25 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 56m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 70¢ $2 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 29¢ $1 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 22¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58d
Lakers vs. Mavericks SELL Mavericks 91¢ $2 70d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 85¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 692 history records