Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb1…eb43 crypto 1184 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 172d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate88%1038W / 146L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 630 -2.8% -12.0% 81% 55% -8.8%
≤30d 630 -2.8% -12.0% 81% 55% -8.8%
≤90d 638 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 54% -9.1%
all 1184 -1.5% -10.8% 88% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 29% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 14% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1038 / 146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1184 / 1184
History coverage173d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1184 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$7 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3415 history records