Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbba8…5af4 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%56W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 56% -5.2%
≤30d 150 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 37% -10.9%
≤90d 150 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 37% -10.9%
all 150 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 37% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 37% -19.4%
15% -36.0% 37% -27.2%
20% -42.3% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses56 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 54¢ 44¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 68¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$14 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$21 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$14 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.84 · official $10.04 · 405 history records