Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbba8…854b sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,332 (-11%) realized −$1,332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%86W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$410
14 days−$1,903
30 days−$1,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,725
other 13% +$273
crypto 0% +$14
world 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +30.3% +17.9% 56% 53% +0.5%
≤30d 179 +11.9% +1.2% 48% 42% -20.9%
≤90d 179 +11.9% +1.2% 48% 42% -20.9%
all 179 +11.9% +1.2% 48% 42% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 42% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 41% -28.5%
15% -17.3% 38% -35.4%
20% -25.4% 31% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses86 / 93
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage23d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 −$25 -45%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $47 +$23 +49%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 +$47 +144%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 +$41 +52%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $16 +$34 +220%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$25 +238%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$35 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 +$107 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $248 −$42 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $151 +$100 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $184 −$32 -17%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $215 −$32 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $263 −$72 -28%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$21 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $138 +$185 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $704 −$246 -35%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $129 −$15 -12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $160 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$19 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $103 +$114 +111%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$15 -36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$60 +100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$21 -69%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $200 +$79 +39%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $135 +$65 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 +$23 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$38 +49%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $18 −$1 -4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $26 +$14 +56%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$3 -11%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$9 -64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $18 +$22 +127%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +113%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 +$2 +245%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $27 +$13 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 35¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $56 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $25 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $22 5h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 49¢ $8 13h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 49¢ $7 13h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 49¢ $24 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $33 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 43¢ $30 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 46¢ $9 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 47¢ $5 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 47¢ $19 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 29h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 31¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 31¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 31¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 31¢ $6 35h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 29¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 29¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $28 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $208 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $182 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $248 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $151 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records