Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BB 0xbba2…24fe other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$28 (+21%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$32
other 31% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.1% +23.1% 100% 100% +22.4%
≤30d 4 +36.1% +23.1% 100% 100% +22.4%
≤90d 7 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 71% +17.4%
all 7 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 71% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 71% +17.4%
10% -9.3% 71% +6.1%
15% -18.1% 29% -4.1%
20% -26.1% 0% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.74 per $1 lost it wins $16.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage44d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $40 +$14 +35%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$7 +43%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 −$1 -4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 1h
Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 93¢ $40 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $30 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $23 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 2d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 33d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 33d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $12 33d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records