Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbba2…e5b5 crypto 321 markets active 3h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$60 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate82%261W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$32
14 days−$409
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$72
crypto 23% −$61
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.3% -4.7% 83% 17% -5.3%
≤30d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 12% -13.4%
≤90d 144 +3.7% -6.2% 82% 22% -9.2%
all 320 +1.1% -8.6% 82% 22% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 22% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses261 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)320 / 321
History coverage120d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? No 95¢ 92¢ $151 $147 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $145 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $152 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 +$17 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $119 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $113 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $107 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $656 −$469 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $560 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $513 +$28 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $152 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $502 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $25 −$10 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $128 +$23 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $193 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $303 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 31 $497 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? May 31 $33 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $374 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $224 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $255 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $129 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $297 +$34 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24? May 23 $173 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 15? May 15 $167 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $257 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $414 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $254 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 13? May 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $375 +$29 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 11? May 11 $328 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12? May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $360 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on May 9? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 17°C on May 9? May 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 8? May 08 $337 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $457 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $214 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $315 +$23 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $151 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $47 33h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $26 33h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $145 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 91¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $19 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.13 · official $147.13 (match) · 1658 history records