trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3,071 | $2,764 | −$307 (-10%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 10¢ | $1,890 | $1,027 | −$863 (-46%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $900 | $0 | −$900 (-100%) |
| UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | Poirier | 46¢ | 0¢ | $999 | $0 | −$999 (-100%) |
| Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $80 | $0 | −$80 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at debate? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) | Pantoja | 68¢ | 0¢ | $749 | $0 | −$749 (-100%) |
| Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? | Feb 23 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? | Feb 23 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | Feb 23 | $212 | −$204 | -96% |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Jan 15 | $900 | −$900 | -100% |
| UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Dec 07 | $250 | +$828 | +330% |
| UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) | Dec 06 | $749 | −$749 | -100% |
| UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | Jul 19 | $999 | −$999 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at debate? | Sep 09 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? | Sep 09 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $100 | +$37 | +37% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 10 | -42.8% | -48.3% | 20% | 20% | -74.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.3% | 20% | -74.8% |
| 10% | -53.2% | 20% | -77.2% |
| 15% | -57.8% | 20% | -79.4% |
| 20% | -61.9% | 10% | -81.4% |