Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbb9a…f1e7 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 15% −$9
other 5% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$20
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +8.8% -1.6% 12% 6% -6.2%
≤90d 42 +0.1% -9.5% 21% 12% -10.8%
all 56 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 7% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage614d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $44 +$1 +3%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$6 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$5 +70%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $83 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $13,538 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $22 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 14h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $6 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.33 · official $38.33 (match) · 292 history records