Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb97…5bb6 politics 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+0%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,389per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$40
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$113
other 37% −$235
sports 18% +$532
culture 1% −$12
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 136 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 8% -9.7%
all 169 +4.3% -5.7% 18% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 14% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 12% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 10% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,895) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$10 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,389
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,506 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,627 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $62 +$62 +101%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,675 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,862 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,362 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,597 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $915 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $37 +$24 +65%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $247 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $451 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,085 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,534 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $333 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $282 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $339 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $5,901 −$6 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $301 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,270 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $4,305 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $566 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $448 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $449 2h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $646 24h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $647 26h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $725 26h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $726 28h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $772 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $773 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $770 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $771 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $772 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $773 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $761 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $773 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $774 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $776 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $778 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $684 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $685 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.35 · official $146.35 (match) · 573 history records