Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BB 0xbb96…8d51 other 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$95 (+4%) realized +$106 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$723per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$955now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+3.4%	-6.4%	50%	50%	-3.2%
≤30d	2	+3.4%	-6.4%	50%	50%	-3.2%
≤90d	2	+3.4%	-6.4%	50%	50%	-3.2%
all	2	+3.4%	-6.4%	50%	50%	-3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.4%	50%	-3.2%
10% ← realistic here	-15.4%	0%	-12.5%
15%	-23.6%	0%	-20.9%
20%	-31.1%	0%	-28.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$12 · ×8.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.11 per $1 lost it wins $8.11

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$955

Realized+$106

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$723

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$966	$955	−$11 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$303	−$12	-4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$891	+$95	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$291	15m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	61¢	$292	16m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$77	25m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$504	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$986	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$889	10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$2	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $954.90 · official $955.04 (match) · 10 history records