Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb95…1c62 sports 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,100 (+15%) realized +$4,104 · open −$4
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%230W / 82L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$65
14 days+$2,953
30 days+$3,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$22
other 18% +$421
politics 15% +$2,138
world 3% +$1,353
finance 3% +$17
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% +$10
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 50% -12.2%
≤30d 90 +5.1% -4.9% 73% 50% +15.9%
≤90d 295 +7.2% -3.0% 74% 53% +3.2%
all 312 +9.0% -1.4% 74% 53% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 53% +4.5%
10% -10.9% 34% -5.5%
15% -19.5% 21% -14.7%
20% -27.4% 13% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$37 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$4,104
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses230 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions8
Markets (closed)312 / 320
History coverage383d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 68¢ 65¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $37 $21 −$16 (-44%)
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%? Yes 2¢ 26¢ $2 $16 +$15 (+949%)
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? No 64¢ 32¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 88¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%? Yes 14¢ 25¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+74%)
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3%? Yes 6¢ 26¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+338%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Up 45¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +87%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $348 +$154 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $124 +$76 +61%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $422 +$24 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$6 +18%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $264 +$4 +2%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $213 +$42 +20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $125 +$76 +60%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $194 −$191 -99%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $292 −$165 -56%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $413 +$92 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $628 −$190 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $354 +$32 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $530 +$33 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $19 −$16 -84%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $86 +$14 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $6 +$1 +12%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $174 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -22%
Will USD/KRW hit 1550 (High) in 2026? Jun 05 $56 +$1 +2%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $179 +$30 +17%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $860 +$295 +34%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,383 +$1,478 +107%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $328 +$668 +204%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $320 +$14 +4%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $456 −$176 -38%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $414 +$696 +168%
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 03 $13 +$5 +40%
Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 03 $5 −$1 -18%
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $27 +$7 +27%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $43 +$12 +27%
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $7 +$4 +61%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $37 +$11 +30%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $83 +$7 +9%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$3 +52%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $120 +$9 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $8 +$2 +18%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $45 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 45¢ $4 17m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 55¢ $31 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 45¢ $26 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 8h
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $9 18h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 67¢ $20 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $163 46h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 41¢ $94 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 41¢ $8 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $1 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $5 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $46 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $17 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $10 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $8 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $0 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $30 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $200 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 62¢ $124 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $101 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $71 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.38 · official $108.38 (match) · 1417 history records