Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb94…9234 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$7
other 21% +$1
politics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 18 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 6% -10.5%
all 34 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 9% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 9% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 6% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage371d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $21 −$6 -28%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 23 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $21 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $14 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $30 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $43 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $38 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $43 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records