Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb93…2f2e crypto 330 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$584 (-3%) realized −$584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%157W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$220
14 days−$241
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,084
sports 11% +$204
other 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.3% +17.9% 100% 100% +3.2%
≤30d 20 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 30% -16.4%
≤90d 82 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 37% -16.7%
all 330 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 44% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -14.0%
10% -21.9% 39% -22.2%
15% -29.4% 35% -29.7%
20% -36.4% 27% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses157 / 173
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage144d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $135 +$68 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,428 +$152 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $148 −$143 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $176 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$91 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $50 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$17 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $148 +$76 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $199 −$93 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 24 $72 +$41 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 24 $37 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 08 $387 −$371 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 08 $216 +$119 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $377 −$360 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 08 $160 −$152 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $316 +$165 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $106 −$95 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $154 −$70 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $156 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $423 +$319 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 08 $315 +$282 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $292 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 08 $360 −$345 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 08 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 08 $207 −$46 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 08 $202 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 08 $290 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 08 $291 +$105 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 08 $413 +$368 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 08 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 08 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 08 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $156 +$69 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $135 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,580 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,428 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $148 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $218 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $159 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $14 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 903 history records