Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb92…701c other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+25%) realized +$64 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$29
sports 8% +$61
crypto 4% −$10
world 2% −$2
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+87.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +107.2% +87.4% 38% 38% +58.9%
≤30d 16 +107.2% +87.4% 38% 38% +58.9%
≤90d 16 +107.2% +87.4% 38% 38% +58.9%
all 16 +107.2% +87.4% 38% 38% +58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.4% 38% +58.9%
10% +69.5% 38% +43.7%
15% +53.1% 38% +29.8%
20% +38.1% 31% +17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +247% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)16 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $89 $101 +$12 (+14%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$29 +1418%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $19 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31h
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 9¢ $5 31h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 31h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 32h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 32h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $5 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.70 · official $189.82 (match) · 51 history records