Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb91…ca28 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2
world 39% $0
politics 12% −$3
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage431d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $37 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $37 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $6 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 17d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 99¢ $4 338d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 351d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 357d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 361d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $9 361d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $9 362d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 362d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 362d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 362d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 363d
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 363d
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $9 363d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 363d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.46 · official $37.46 (match) · 85 history records