Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb90…8174 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% $0
world 24% −$2
sports 23% +$1
other 22% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -10.3%
all 23 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage258d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $187 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 12 $166 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 0m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $34 0m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $8 1m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $47 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $4 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $39 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $43 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $46 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $46 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $21 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $23 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $44 32d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $178 101d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $9 101d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $187 101d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes $1 102d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes $6 102d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY Yes $2 102d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY Yes $4 102d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 SELL No 61¢ $89 103d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 SELL No 61¢ $77 103d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY No 61¢ $62 103d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY No 61¢ $104 103d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records