Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbb90…3969 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-24%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$26
finance 12% +$3
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 100% 100% +14.9%
≤90d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 71% 71% -24.2%
all 9 -12.3% -20.6% 67% 67% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 67% -33.4%
10% -28.2% 56% -39.8%
15% -35.2% 22% -45.6%
20% -41.5% 0% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage93d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7 +$3 +46%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 18 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 18 $11 +$3 +28%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 15 $6 +$3 +49%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman BUY Shuai Zhang 89¢ $9 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $7 27d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 78¢ $9 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 78¢ $11 78d
Raptors vs. Suns BUY Raptors 57¢ $11 84d
Pacers vs. Magic BUY Magic 89¢ $11 85d
Suns vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 79¢ $6 91d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 88¢ $15 92d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $6 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.96 · official $5.96 (match) · 16 history records