Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb8f…186c other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$19
politics 29% −$14
sports 10% +$25
crypto 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 141 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage118d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $164 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $450 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $175 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $410 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $311 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 13h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $183 22d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 23d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $235 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $235 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $195 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $195 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records