Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb8b…9cd7 sports 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$310 (+4%) realized +$308 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%119W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$339
14 days+$41
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$949
other 36% +$1,323
crypto 1% −$83
world 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.5% +5.4% 70% 60% +20.1%
≤30d 253 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% -6.1%
≤90d 253 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% -6.1%
all 253 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -6.1%
10% -19.9% 39% -15.1%
15% -27.7% 32% -23.3%
20% -34.7% 29% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$25 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses119 / 134
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions6
Markets (closed)253 / 260
History coverage25d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 87¢ 97¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 83¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 70¢ 62¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 82¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+87%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 48¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$43 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$56 +216%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $65 +$17 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$9 +29%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$8 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $203 +$89 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44 +$6 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $12 +$8 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $84 −$83 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$17 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $14 +$16 +108%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +13%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 06 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $15 +$16 +105%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $30 +$18 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 89¢ $15 4m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 5m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $15 5m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $50 6m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 6m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $25 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $31 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $13 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $41 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $16 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $41 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06 BUY 48¢ $2 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $20 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $20 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $25 30h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 91¢ $15 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.51 · official $119.51 (match) · 487 history records