Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb8a…9953 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-1%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$4
other 24% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$81
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 102 -4.0% -13.2% 3% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -10.9%
10% -21.5% 3% -19.4%
15% -29.1% 3% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage547d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Apr 10 $8 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 11PM ET Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1PM ET Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET Feb 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET Feb 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9AM ET Feb 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12PM ET Feb 14 $9 +$9 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET Feb 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 30 $8 $0 -0%
Solana above $210 on August 22? Aug 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will DIY hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jun 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alpine finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Initiative win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Mar 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dejounte Murray lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Dec 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will another team win La Liga? Dec 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $53 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 19 $72 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 68d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 68d
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 119d
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 121d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 123d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 124d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $58 131d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 131d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 99¢ $2 250d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $2 250d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $6 257d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $6 257d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? SELL No 100¢ $10 264d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 264d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3 282d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $3 283d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $8 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records