Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb89…c7eb sports 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-2%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%76W / 28L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$140
other 2% −$13
crypto 0% −$30
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 38% -11.8%
≤30d 104 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 38% -11.8%
≤90d 104 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 38% -11.8%
all 104 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 38% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -20.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -28.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$37 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses76 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage5d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 90¢ 90¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 82¢ 85¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $51 +$4 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $21 −$12 -58%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$8 -50%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $502 −$393 -78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $521 +$94 +18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $161 +$31 +19%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $502 +$76 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $502 +$91 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $503 +$103 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $465 +$65 +14%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $502 +$83 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $503 +$98 +20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $512 −$317 -62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $361 −$180 -50%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $133 +$22 +17%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $55 +$9 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$7 -48%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $21 −$3 -16%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $21 +$4 +21%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 90¢ $51 4m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $56 12m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $55 15m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 93¢ $51 48m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 91¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 78¢ $12 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 78¢ $31 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 38¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 92¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 92¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 89¢ $21 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $15 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $18 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 83¢ $15 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $92 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 31¢ $17 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $614 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $192 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 76¢ $32 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 83¢ $5 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $47 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 87¢ $29 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 85¢ $32 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 82¢ $15 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $521 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $578 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.61 · official $66.33 (match) · 244 history records