Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb81…a006 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$15
other 12% −$2
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.9% -5.1% 33% 33% -5.7%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 12% -12.0%
≤90d 14 +6.8% -3.3% 43% 14% -7.5%
all 26 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -7.8%
10% -17.5% 4% -16.6%
15% -25.4% 4% -24.7%
20% -32.8% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage490d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 +$7 +15%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $109 −$16 -14%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $65 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $56 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 +$27 +124%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $2 $0 -25%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +5%
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 02 $8 $0 +5%
Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $12 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $16 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $25 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $46 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $50 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 26h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $24 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $61 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $59 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $6 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $5 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $24 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $27 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $56 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $23 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records