Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb7f…850d other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$65 (+9%) realized +$67 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$120
sports 22% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +21.2% +9.7% 30% 30% -12.1%
≤30d 27 +21.2% +9.7% 30% 30% -12.1%
≤90d 27 +21.2% +9.7% 30% 30% -12.1%
all 27 +21.2% +9.7% 30% 30% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 30% -12.1%
10% -0.8% 26% -20.5%
15% -10.4% 26% -28.2%
20% -19.2% 19% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$76 +1475%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$22 +53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$36 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $80 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $60 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $121 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.46 · official $9.38 (match) · 47 history records