Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7d…8a16 politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$5
sports 20% −$6
other 15% −$2
world 14% −$2
tech 5% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$764) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage81d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,113 $1,113 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,187 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 16 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $22 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 04 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? May 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd May 04 $746 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $798 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $764 −$3 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? May 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $778 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $60 $0 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $142 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 8m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 20m
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 27m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 34m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 49m
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 58m
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $833 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $293 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 1h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,111 33h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 33h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 33h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $783 34h
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $260 34h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $24 34h
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $1,045 34h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $61 39d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $28 39d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 39d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $12 39d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 39d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $13 39d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $9 39d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $16 39d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $22 39d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $736 44d
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $73 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,112.64 · official $1,112.64 (match) · 102 history records