Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7c…1bc8 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 22% −$5
politics 16% $0
weather 11% +$1
tech 6% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 64% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 64% 0% -8.8%
all 49 -1.6% -11.0% 35% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage319d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $52 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 93°F or higher on August 12? Aug 15 $57 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 11 Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 06 $57 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $117,000 on August 6? Aug 06 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $28 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $7 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.46 · official $28.30 (match) · 158 history records