Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7c…79e7 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-13%) realized −$44 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%49W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$5
sports 26% −$18
crypto 3% −$4
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 49% -14.1%
≤30d 89 -20.0% -27.6% 55% 42% -25.2%
≤90d 89 -20.0% -27.6% 55% 42% -25.2%
all 89 -20.0% -27.6% 55% 42% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 42% -25.2%
10% -34.6% 27% -32.4%
15% -40.9% 19% -38.9%
20% -46.7% 13% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses49 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)89 / 110
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 17¢ 100¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+488%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+79%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 +$17 +412%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 38m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 91¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $2 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 0¢ $2 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $2 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $2 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $2 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $2 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.92 · official $85.77 (match) · 179 history records