Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb77…cdd5 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 26% +$13
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +2.4% -7.3% 33% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +2.4% -7.3% 33% 6% -9.6%
all 48 +10.4% -0.1% 40% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 4% -8.6%
10% -9.6% 4% -17.4%
15% -18.4% 4% -25.3%
20% -26.4% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage460d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $53 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $3 $0 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $2 +$13 +549%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $15 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $13 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $19 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $51 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $51 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $35 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $12 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $47 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $23 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $23 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $51 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.27 · official $45.84 (match) · 166 history records